Many tales of monstrous waves, known as rogue waves, have been passed down by sailors throughout history. However, it was not until 1995 when the Norwegian oil platform Draupner was struck by a 26-meter-high rogue wave that scientific evidence of […]
Many tales of monstrous waves, known as rogue waves, have been passed down by sailors throughout history. However, it was not until 1995 when the Norwegian oil platform Draupner was struck by a 26-meter-high rogue wave that scientific evidence of these abnormal ocean waves was truly established. Since then, researchers from the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute have embraced artificial intelligence (AI) to unravel the mysteries of rogue waves and create a mathematical model to predict their occurrence. This groundbreaking discovery has the potential to revolutionize the shipping industry and enhance maritime safety.
Unlike the previous belief that rogue waves were caused by the combination of two waves stealing each other’s energy, the study reveals that the phenomenon of „linear superposition“ is the primary factor in their formation. Linear superposition occurs when two wave systems intersect, reinforcing each other briefly and resulting in the creation of extremely large waves. This knowledge, dating back to the 1700s, is now supported by comprehensive data analysis.
By analyzing over a billion waves and utilizing machine learning techniques, the researchers have developed an algorithm that predicts the probability of rogue wave formation. Astonishingly, they have registered approximately 100,000 waves that fit the rogue wave definition in their dataset alone, indicating that these monstrous waves are not as rare as previously believed.
The algorithm’s implications for the shipping industry are immense. With an estimated 50,000 cargo ships navigating the oceans at any given time, the ability to assess the risk of encountering dangerous rogue waves in advance is invaluable. Shipping companies can utilize the algorithm to plan alternative routes and mitigate potential dangers.
Moreover, the transparency of the researchers’ algorithm sets it apart from many other AI models. All intermediate calculations are accessible, allowing public authorities and weather services to calculate the probability of rogue waves in real time. This democratization of knowledge ensures that stakeholders can prioritize safety measures based on accurate risk assessments.
1. What are rogue waves?
Rogue waves are abnormally large ocean waves that can exceed twice the height of surrounding waves. They have long been the subject of sailor folklore.
2. How have researchers used AI to study rogue waves?
Researchers from the University of Copenhagen’s Niels Bohr Institute have utilized AI methods, including symbolic regression, to analyze over a billion waves and identify the causal variables that lead to rogue wave formation.
3. What is the primary cause of rogue waves?
The study reveals that the dominant factor in the materialization of rogue waves is „linear superposition,“ a phenomenon in which two wave systems intersect and reinforce each other, resulting in the formation of exceptionally large waves.
4. What are the implications of the algorithm for the shipping industry?
The algorithm allows shipping companies to assess the risk of encountering dangerous rogue waves and plan alternative routes accordingly, enhancing maritime safety.
5. How transparent is the researchers’ algorithm?
The researchers’ algorithm is highly transparent, with all intermediate calculations accessible. Public authorities and weather services can utilize this transparency to calculate the probability of rogue waves and make informed decisions.